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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd